2012 NFL Week 5 'BIG UPS' 10-9-12

Catch Harvin if you can...watch your ankles though.

Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings. Looking for the most explosive player in the NFL? Look no further than one William Percival Harvin, III, Vikings' receiver/runner/return specialist extraordinaire. Harvin diced the Tennessee Titans this past Sunday for eight catches and 108 yards with a touchdown, a rushing TD, and a few linebackers and DBs with broken ankles. Harvin leads the league in YAC with a 8.4 average and he's averaging 38.3 yards per kick return, including a 105-yarder for a score last week against the Detroit Lions.

Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots.  It wasn't a perfect night for Ridley but it was major looking ahead for his career.  The Patriots are a passing team with a stable of running backs, but Ridley is emerging as the starting back of the future for New England.  He had a career-high 151 yards on 28 carries and a touchdown against the Denver Broncos after 22 carries and 106 yards rushing against the Buffalo Bills the previous week.  Ridley has to do a better job of holding on to the football though.  He has fumbled four times in his last 118 touches, a rate that will not sit well with Bill Belichick no matter how well he's playing.

Ryan Tannenhill, Miami Dolphins.  Tannenhill dons No. 17 and is also the 17th different starting quarterback for the Dolphins since Dan Marino retired in 1999.  Through the Jay Fiedler's, A.J. Feeley's, and Matt Moore's, the thing that makes Tannenhill stand out the most is his size and confident Marino-like swagger.  He is athletic enough to scramble but chooses to stand in the pocket and make passes while taking big hits.  This will endear him to his teammates in the long run.  The No. 8 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft is not getting the hype that RGIII and Andrew Luck are getting, but it won't be long before Tannenhill really starts coming into his own.  Case in point, the Week 5 win against the Cincinnati Bengals put Tannenhill into an elite category.  He is now the only rookie in NFL history to pass for more than 1,200 yards in his first five games with at least two wins.  Add on the Week 4 performance against the Arizona Cardinals when he threw for a Dolphins single-game rookie record 431 yards and it's clear to see that Tannenhill is on his way.  BIG UP.

BIGGEST UP
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints.
 

Records keep piling up for Brees.

As a Dolphins fan it's hard to give Brees the BIG UP because I still remember the 2001 draft, when Miami desperately needed a franchise QB after Marino retired, and Brees was still available for the Dolphins to pick and they passed over him to take CB Jamar Fletcher when they already had two Pro Bowl corners in Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain on the roster. But I digress. Brees has basically gone from a fringe elite NFL quarterback to a lock for the Hall of Fame in just the past four years. Super Bowl winner, 5,000 yard passer, and now consecutive games (48) with a passing TD record passing the great Johnny Unitas (although it's noteworthy that Tom Brady will likely eclipse the Unitas mark in Week 17 if he throws a TD in every game this season).

2012 NFL Playoff Preview: 'Divine Intervention'

Can the vaunted 49ers D get to Drew Brees?

NFC Divisional Playoffs
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, January 14th, 2012 - Candlestick Park, San Francisco, CA

It's true test time for both teams Saturday when the New Orleans Saints (14-3) offense goes against the solid defense of the San Francisco 49ers.  The Niners (13-3)  have been slightly under the radar this year despite earning the No. 2 seed in the NFC under first year coach Jim Harbaugh and one of the most improved defenses in the NFL.  Quarterback Alex Smith went from possibly being on the trade block last year after being benched midway through the season to starting every single game for San Fran this year.  He has been efficient (17 touchdowns, five interceptions, 90.7 QBR) despite not throwing for 300 yards in a game at all this year.  On the other side, Drew Brees has thrown for 300 yards an NFL record 13 times this year.  The 49ers rush defense is the strong point, allowing only three rushing touchdowns all year, but the secondary will be tested.  Getting a solid pass rush from rookie linebacker Aldon Smith and veteran lineman Justin Smith will go a long way in slowing down Brees and the Saints offense.

Pick:  Saints, 34-20

Key to game for Saints:  Air it out.  Use the short passing game to running back Pierre Thomas and tight end Jimmy Graham as the run to get the linebackers moving laterally.  It will open up the intermediate passing game and the delayed draw that head coach and playcaller Sean Payton likes to take advantage of.
Key to game for 49ers:  Control time of possession.  Running back Frank Gore must have a good game on the ground as San Francisco's best defense will be keeping Brees and the Saints offense on the sidelines.

Brady is burning to lead the Pats back to the promised land.

AFC Divisional Playoffs
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Saturday, January 14th, 2012 - Gilette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

If there were ever a matchup more tailored for Tim Tebow to redeem himself as a starting NFL quarterback and shut up his critics once and for all, it is this game against Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the New England Patriots.  The Broncos had a 16-7 lead early against the Pats in the regular season matchup before two turnovers right before the end of the first half put them in a hole they could not climb out of.  Denver (9-8) get a second chance to see what might have been if it weren't for those fumbles.  The Patriots (13-3) have their own redemption story.  They've earned the first round bye in the AFC playoffs for the third consecutive year, but have not won a playoff game since the 2008 AFC championship game against the San Diego Chargers, the game before the New York Giants ended the Patriots undefeated season in that huge Super Bowl upset.  Both Belichick and Brady stand to take big hits in their overall legacies should the Patriots lose this game, so expect both the gameplan and quarterback play from New England to be on point.

Pick:  Patriots, 30-20

Key to game for Broncos:  Stay out of 3rd and long situations.  The Steelers dared Tebow to throw last week and got continuously burned by the deep ball.  The Patriots defense will mix it up alot more and play soft coverages to minimize big plays and keep Tebow in the pocket.
Key to game for Patriots:  Get points on the board early.  New England didn't do a good job in stopping the run in the first meeting (gave up 252 yards rushing, 8.1 yards per carry) and playing from behind could spell disaster.

2012 NFL Playoff Preview: 'To the Dome'

Johnson should be ready no matter who is playing QB.

AFC Wildcard Playoff

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Saturday, January 7th, 2012 - Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX

This game will be decided by which rookie quarterback has the best performance despite not being at full strength.  Cincinnati Bengals rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has been the starter for every game this year and has put any conversations about Carson Palmer leaving town to rest.  Dalton has started all but one game for the Bengals (9-7) and has kept his team in every game; outside of a 35-7 thrashing at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers Week 13, Cincy's widest margin of defeat is eight points.  Dalton enters the game coming out of the flu.  On the other side, Houston Texans rookie quarterback T.J. Yates didn't get his first start until Week 13 versus the Atlanta Falcons after starter Matt Schaub and backup Matt Leinart went down with injuries.  All Yates did was lead the Texans (10-6) on a 4th quarter game-winning drive to knock off the Falcons 17-10 and then the next week he tossed the game-winner against this very Bengals team in Cincinnati for a 20-19 victory.  Yates threw for 300 yards and two touchdowns in that game, despite missing Pro Bowl receiver Andre Johnson, who missed most of the year due to injury.  But Yates seperated his non-throwing shoulder in the last game of the season and it remains to be seen how it will effect him in his first career playoff game.

Pick: Texans, 20-15

Key to game for Bengals:  Get six points in the redzone and not three.  Tight end Jermaine Gresham should pose missmatches on linebackers and tight ends while receivers A.J. Green and Jerome Simpson occupy space on the perimeter.
Key to game for Texans:  Pound the ground game early and often with running backs Arian Foster and Ben Tate.  Success with the rushing attack will take pressure off of Yates and should open up playaction and possible big plays for Johnson and tight end Owen Daniels.

All the Saints have to do is stick to the script.

NFC Wildcard Playoff
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
Saturday, January 7th, 2012 - Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA

The Saints literally limped into the playoffs last year (six starters DNP in the Wildcard loss to the Seattle Seahawks) after coming off of a Super Bowl winning season.  This year should be different for New Orleans as they head into the playoffs with the number one offense in the National Football League, in decent enough health, and riding a eight game winning streak.  Drew Brees has put himself in position to pass some guys on the list of all-time great quarterbacks after breaking Dan Marino's single season passing yards mark this year, and he already has one Super Bowl victory under his belt.  And with tight end Jimmy Graham (one of the six injured players that didn't play in the playoffs last year) and running back Darren Sproles playing at high levels, the Saints (13-3) look like they will cruise to the NFC Championship Game.  Quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions are no strangers to putting up big offensive numbers in the confines of a dome stadium either.  Stafford started all 16 games this year for the first time in his three year career and had highs in passing yards (5,038) and touchdowns (41).  Pro Bowl receiver Calvin Johnson also had a career year with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 TDs.  Detroit hopes that its defense can play well enough that it doesn't have to get in a shootout.  The Lions (10-6) will have the best defensive player in the game for either team Saturday in the form of nose tackle Ndamukong Suh.  It might not matter though if his teammates don't help him create enough distractions to slow down Brees and a healthy Saints offense.

Pick: Saints, 38-31

Key to game for Lions: Limit mistakes.  In the regular season matchup between these two teams, Detroit missed two field goals and Suh committed a personal foul at a crucial point in the game.  The Lions ended up losing that game 31-17.  Can't afford to give away points and yardage to New Orleans; they're just too good.
Key to game for Saints: No looking ahead.  New Orleans knows its a good team and overlooking the Lions at a possible matchup with defending Super Bowl champions Green Bay Packers could make for another bitter offseason.