2012 NFL Week 5 'BIG UPS' 10-9-12

Catch Harvin if you can...watch your ankles though.

Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings. Looking for the most explosive player in the NFL? Look no further than one William Percival Harvin, III, Vikings' receiver/runner/return specialist extraordinaire. Harvin diced the Tennessee Titans this past Sunday for eight catches and 108 yards with a touchdown, a rushing TD, and a few linebackers and DBs with broken ankles. Harvin leads the league in YAC with a 8.4 average and he's averaging 38.3 yards per kick return, including a 105-yarder for a score last week against the Detroit Lions.

Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots.  It wasn't a perfect night for Ridley but it was major looking ahead for his career.  The Patriots are a passing team with a stable of running backs, but Ridley is emerging as the starting back of the future for New England.  He had a career-high 151 yards on 28 carries and a touchdown against the Denver Broncos after 22 carries and 106 yards rushing against the Buffalo Bills the previous week.  Ridley has to do a better job of holding on to the football though.  He has fumbled four times in his last 118 touches, a rate that will not sit well with Bill Belichick no matter how well he's playing.

Ryan Tannenhill, Miami Dolphins.  Tannenhill dons No. 17 and is also the 17th different starting quarterback for the Dolphins since Dan Marino retired in 1999.  Through the Jay Fiedler's, A.J. Feeley's, and Matt Moore's, the thing that makes Tannenhill stand out the most is his size and confident Marino-like swagger.  He is athletic enough to scramble but chooses to stand in the pocket and make passes while taking big hits.  This will endear him to his teammates in the long run.  The No. 8 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft is not getting the hype that RGIII and Andrew Luck are getting, but it won't be long before Tannenhill really starts coming into his own.  Case in point, the Week 5 win against the Cincinnati Bengals put Tannenhill into an elite category.  He is now the only rookie in NFL history to pass for more than 1,200 yards in his first five games with at least two wins.  Add on the Week 4 performance against the Arizona Cardinals when he threw for a Dolphins single-game rookie record 431 yards and it's clear to see that Tannenhill is on his way.  BIG UP.

BIGGEST UP
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints.
 

Records keep piling up for Brees.

As a Dolphins fan it's hard to give Brees the BIG UP because I still remember the 2001 draft, when Miami desperately needed a franchise QB after Marino retired, and Brees was still available for the Dolphins to pick and they passed over him to take CB Jamar Fletcher when they already had two Pro Bowl corners in Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain on the roster. But I digress. Brees has basically gone from a fringe elite NFL quarterback to a lock for the Hall of Fame in just the past four years. Super Bowl winner, 5,000 yard passer, and now consecutive games (48) with a passing TD record passing the great Johnny Unitas (although it's noteworthy that Tom Brady will likely eclipse the Unitas mark in Week 17 if he throws a TD in every game this season).

2012 NFL Playoff Preview: 'Divine Intervention'

Can the vaunted 49ers D get to Drew Brees?

NFC Divisional Playoffs
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, January 14th, 2012 - Candlestick Park, San Francisco, CA

It's true test time for both teams Saturday when the New Orleans Saints (14-3) offense goes against the solid defense of the San Francisco 49ers.  The Niners (13-3)  have been slightly under the radar this year despite earning the No. 2 seed in the NFC under first year coach Jim Harbaugh and one of the most improved defenses in the NFL.  Quarterback Alex Smith went from possibly being on the trade block last year after being benched midway through the season to starting every single game for San Fran this year.  He has been efficient (17 touchdowns, five interceptions, 90.7 QBR) despite not throwing for 300 yards in a game at all this year.  On the other side, Drew Brees has thrown for 300 yards an NFL record 13 times this year.  The 49ers rush defense is the strong point, allowing only three rushing touchdowns all year, but the secondary will be tested.  Getting a solid pass rush from rookie linebacker Aldon Smith and veteran lineman Justin Smith will go a long way in slowing down Brees and the Saints offense.

Pick:  Saints, 34-20

Key to game for Saints:  Air it out.  Use the short passing game to running back Pierre Thomas and tight end Jimmy Graham as the run to get the linebackers moving laterally.  It will open up the intermediate passing game and the delayed draw that head coach and playcaller Sean Payton likes to take advantage of.
Key to game for 49ers:  Control time of possession.  Running back Frank Gore must have a good game on the ground as San Francisco's best defense will be keeping Brees and the Saints offense on the sidelines.

Brady is burning to lead the Pats back to the promised land.

AFC Divisional Playoffs
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Saturday, January 14th, 2012 - Gilette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

If there were ever a matchup more tailored for Tim Tebow to redeem himself as a starting NFL quarterback and shut up his critics once and for all, it is this game against Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the New England Patriots.  The Broncos had a 16-7 lead early against the Pats in the regular season matchup before two turnovers right before the end of the first half put them in a hole they could not climb out of.  Denver (9-8) get a second chance to see what might have been if it weren't for those fumbles.  The Patriots (13-3) have their own redemption story.  They've earned the first round bye in the AFC playoffs for the third consecutive year, but have not won a playoff game since the 2008 AFC championship game against the San Diego Chargers, the game before the New York Giants ended the Patriots undefeated season in that huge Super Bowl upset.  Both Belichick and Brady stand to take big hits in their overall legacies should the Patriots lose this game, so expect both the gameplan and quarterback play from New England to be on point.

Pick:  Patriots, 30-20

Key to game for Broncos:  Stay out of 3rd and long situations.  The Steelers dared Tebow to throw last week and got continuously burned by the deep ball.  The Patriots defense will mix it up alot more and play soft coverages to minimize big plays and keep Tebow in the pocket.
Key to game for Patriots:  Get points on the board early.  New England didn't do a good job in stopping the run in the first meeting (gave up 252 yards rushing, 8.1 yards per carry) and playing from behind could spell disaster.

Throwbackz: Bay State Blues

Both teams played hard, but the Lakers prevailed.

Fans of Boston sports teams have been living a dream over the past 10 years as the Boston Red Sox, Boston Celtics, and New England Patriots have all won championships in the past decade.  That is very impressive considering that in the 1990s there were zero championships and only two finals appearance (the Boston Bruins in '90 and the Patriots in '97).  But since the Celtics beat the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2008 NBA Finals for the 17th championship in franchise history, the Mass. teams have been an "0"-fer, and have experienced some pretty agonizing losses . . .
- The 2009-10 Boston Celtics started the season on fire, going 23-5 through Christmas Day '09.  After that, the C's went 27-27, finishing the season as the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference, and many pundits anticipating an early exit from the playoffs.  But the veteran team led by All-Stars Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Rajon Rondo swept through Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat in the first round before stunning league MVP LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers -- who had an NBA best 61-21 record -- in the second round, and rolling past Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals.  The Finals matched the Celtics with their historic rival Los Angeles Lakers for the 12th time in NBA history and the second time in three years.  The C's took a 3-2 series lead on the Lakers after winning Game 5 in Boston and would have to head back to L.A. to close out.  The Lakers stomped the Celtics by 22 points in Game 6, but Boston was in control for most of Game 7, leading by as many as 13 points.  But the Lakers rallied late in the 4th quarter behind the home crowd to defend the NBA crown with an 83-79 win.

Pedroia won the 2008 AL MVP -- but no championship.

- The 2008 Boston Red Sox were coming off a high of winning the '07 World Series, their second championship in four years after suffering a rather painfully unforgettable 86 year drought.  The team got off to an average start, and turmoil in the clubhouse led to perennial All-Star outfielder Manny Ramirez to be traded away at the trade deadline in exchange for Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Jason Bay.  However, the new look Red Sox flourished in the second half of the season -- thanks to an MVP season by second baseman Dustin Pedroia, and a breakout year for first baseman Kevin Youkilis -- and earned the American League Wild Card playoff berth with a record of 95-67.  After defeating the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 3-1 in the American League Division Series, Boston went on to face the AL East Division champion Tampa Bay Rays in the American League Championship Series.  The upstart Rays had posed a problem for the Sox all year as Boston finished the regular season with an 8-10 record against them.  But the Red Sox were a veteran team in the postseason with the young Rays making the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.  Starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka and the rest of the Boston pitching staff silenced the Tampa Bay lineup in Game 1 of the ALCS in St. Petersburg, FL, holding them to a four-hit shutout in a 2-0 win.  But the Rays were just warming up.  Tampa went on to score nine runs in each of the next two games and 13 in Game 4 to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.  The Red Sox didn't quit.  Clutch hitting provided by designated hitter David Ortiz and outfielder J.D. Drew, and solid pitching from starter Josh Beckett, led to two victories while pushing the series to a decisive Game 7.  Red Sox Nation was confident they would get the win since the BoSox fell behind 3-1 in the 2007 ALCS against the Cleveland Indians and cameback to take the series and were behind 3-0 to the New York Yankees in the 2004 ALCS before completing a historic turnaround.  But the Boston lineup was shut down by a dominant performance from Rays pitcher Matt Garza to start the game and David Price to close it, falling 3-1 at Tropicana Field in St. Pete's.

Boston fans know 3-0 series comebacks from both sides.

- The 2009-10 Boston Bruins ended the regular season as the 6-seed in the Eastern Conference of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and aspirations of making a run to the Finals for the first time in 20 years.  The Bruins, led by captain defenseman Zdeno Chara, veteran winger Mark Recchi, and goaltender Tuukka Rask  -- a rookie netminder filling in for injured 2008-09 Vezina Trophy winner Tim Thomas -- carved the 3-seed Buffalo Sabres 4-2 in the Eastern quarterfinals and moved on to face the Philadelphia Flyers in the semis, as the 7th seed Flyers knocked off the second-seeded New Jersey Devils in a quarterfinals that also saw the top-seeded Washington Capitals fall to the eighth-seeded Montreal Canadiens.  Boston showed no signs of being upset by Philly though, taking a 3-0 lead.  Things turned for the Bruins when star forward David Krecji went down with an injury in the Game 3 victory, and Flyer forward Simon Gagne returned from the M*A*S*H* unit in Game 4.  Gagne scored the overtime game-winner in his first game back helping the Flyers stave off elimination at the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia.  The Bruins dropped the next two games and saw themselves squarely on the brink of disaster heading into Game 7 at the TD Banknorth Garden in Boston.  Anxiety of an epic collapse were quelled early in the game though as winger Michael Ryder scored the opening goal for the B's followed by two goals by Milan Lucic for 3-0 Boston advantage.  However, the Flyers chipped away at the lead and tied the game in the second period before Gagne scored the game-winner for Philly with just over 7 minutes left in regulation and the Bruins lost 4-3 in the game and the series.  It was the first time in 35 years of hockey that a team blew a 3-0 series lead and only the fourth time in sports history.

Brady is 14-5 career in the playoffs; 0 for the last 3.

- Tom Brady and the 2009 New England Patriots had an off year by their standards finishing the season with a 10-6 record and a Wild Card playoff 33-14 beatdown by the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA; Brady's first career home playoff loss.  The 2010 Pats came in with optimism as wide receiver Wes Welker returned from a season-ending knee injury suffered in the last regular season game of the '09 season and with the NFL's youngest defense becoming a year older.  Star receiver Randy Moss was traded away after Week 4 but the offense didn't sputter.  The Pats acquired wide receiver Deoin Branch -- a former Super Bowl MVP in New England -- from the Seattle Seahawks and rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez continued their productivity along with the emergence of running backs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and waiver acqisition Danny Woodhead.  After a stunning loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 9, the Patriots went on a remarkable run to end the regular season, going 8-0 in a streak that included zero New England turnovers and victories over three eventual division champions (Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts) and a 45-3 romp over its division rival New York Jets on December 6th.  The Jets got by the Colts in the AFC Wildcard playoffs and geared up for a rematch against the Patriots in the Divisional playoffs with the entire week leading up to the game fueled by vicious trash-talk.  With all the talking going on, mostly from the Jets' side, Patriots players and fans wanted nothing more than to shut up coach Rex Ryan and the boastful Jets squad with a victory on the field.  New York talked the talk and walked the walk though as they grinded out a 28-21 win to advance to the AFC Championship game for the second straight year.

Footing the Bill

Wes Welker high-stepping to the end zone.

AFC Divisional Playoffs
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Sunday, January 16th, 2011 - Gilette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

It's funny with all the trash-talk going on between the Jets and the Pats this week that there hasn't been much talk about how New York will rebound from a 45-3 baptismal at the hands of the Patriots in Week 13.  If I was a Jet I wouldn't want to talk about it either.  New York coach Rex Ryan can say that the matchup is between him and New England coach Bill Belichik, and it is, because Ryan will need to throw some new wrinkles in the game plan this time around, because, obviously, nothing they did last time really worked.  On defense, New York cornerback Darrelle Revis did a bang up job last week against the Indianapolis Colts, holding Pro Bowl receiver Reggie Wayne to only one catch for one yard.  But Revis, Antonio Cromartie, and the rest of the Jets secondary will have their hands full with the Pats very diverse passing game, which has been sparked by rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.  Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will have to keep his feet in the pocket as Ryan and the Jet D will probably send pressure at him similar to that of the first matchup between the two teams this season, a 28-14 Jets win in Week 2. On offense, the Jets will still try to pound it out on the ground with healthy doses of running backs LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, and rely on timely passes from quarterback Mark Sanchez (who wasn't extremely accurate in the Wildcard playoffs, but made big plays in the 4th quarter).

Pick:  Patriots, 27-20
Key to game for Jets:  Take the ball out of Brady's hands by running the ball on offense and controlling the clock.  Send exotic blitz packages to confuse Brady and force him to throw before he wants to.
Key to game for Patriots:  No 3-and-outs on offense.  The longer the New England defense is on the field, the better it plays into the hands of the Jets' gameplan.

NFC Divisional Playoffs
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Saturday, January 15th, 2011 - Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA

Packers must slow the powerful Turner.

Aaron Rodgers took the first step in replacing legendary Packer quarterback Brett Favre last week on the road in Philly by recording his 1st career playoff win as the starter.  Rodgers will lead Green Bay (11-6) on the road again this week in the ATL and face a team that has a quarterback who is starting to build is own legend.  In just his third year in the league, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has been a juggernaut when playing in Atlanta, going 20-2 as starter in the Georgia Dome.  About half of those wins have been in dramatic fashion, including a 20-17 win over the Pack in Week 12 that was sealed with a Matt Bryant 47-yard field goal with 9 seconds left.  The Falcons (13-3) were aware of the implications that game had in playoff picture as league-leading receiver Roddy White said, "I have no plans of going to Lambeau Field in January, I plan on staying right here and sleeping in my own bed in the playoffs."  White and the Falcons did what they had to do to get home-field throughout but Rodgers and the Green Bay offense comes in more confident now with the emergence of fullback John Kuhn and running back James Starks, who started the year on the practice squad but had 123 yards rushing in the 21-16 win over the Eagles in the Wildcard playoffs last weekend.

Pick:  Packers, 27-24
Key to game for Falcons:  Don't let the Packers receivers get behind you.  Rodgers will kill you with the vertical ball, especially with guys like Greg Jennings, James Jones, Donald Driver on the receiving end.
Key to game for Packers:  Slow down Falcons running back Michael Turner.  The Green Bay D allowed Turner to rush for 110 yards and a touchdown in the Week 12 matchup.

AFC Divisional Playoffs
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Saturday, January 15th, 2011 - Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA

Flacco must know where #43 is on every play.

The annual "black and blue" game between these two no nonsense defenses is certainly poised to be another brutal affair.  The Ravens defense was dominant on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wildcard playoffs, blanking the Chiefs for the final three quarters of the game for a 30-7 win.  They will have to repeat that performance once again on the road, this time against a familiar foe.  On offense in the divisional playoffs, Baltimore (13-4) featured tight end Todd Heap (mostly on crossing routes) to the tune of 10 catches, a franchise record for the post season.  Heap was injured on the first offensive play against the Steelers (12-4) in the Week 13 matchup, a 13-10 Pittsburgh triumph, where the Ravens led most of the game but had the win stripped away by a blitzing Troy Polamalu and a shifty Ben Roethlisberger.  I expect Heap to be the difference maker in this one, just as long as the Baltimore O-line can keep quarterback Joe Flacco upright long enough to deliver the football.

Pick:  Ravens, 20-16
Key to game for Steelers:  Same as every matchup with Baltimore, keep Flacco guessing where the blitz is coming from.
Key to game for Ravens:  When Roethlisberger is to be had, bring him down.  Big Ben is the best in the league at making something out of nothing.

NFC Divisional Playoffs
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
Sunday, January 16th, 2011 - Solider Field, Chicago, IL

Beast Mode part 2 will be less likely against the Bears D.

Marshawn Lynch's "beast mode" was enough to take the Seahawks (8-9) and put them over that edge last week against the New Orleans Saints, and they are gonna need another beast-like performance to tame the Bears in Chi-Town on Sunday.  Seattle coach Pete Carroll and his team seemed to thrive on the underdog role against the defending champs in the Wildcard playoffs, and the fans at Qwest Field definitely were "The 12th Man" in that game.  Now we can see if they can turn those feelings of disrespect into a hostile environment at Soldier Field.  Yes, the Seahawks have already beaten the Bears (11-5) on that field this season, 23-20, but that was in Week 6 (October 17th).  That being said, it will be interesting to see how Jay Cutler and the Chicago offense responds to the bye week.  The Bear D will have added pressure to perform at a high level, especially if Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has it rolling like he did against the Saints (272 yards passing, 4 TDs).

Pick:  Seahawks, 21-16
Key to game for Bears:  Score when in the redzone . . . touchdowns.
Key to game for Seahawks:  Stop Matt Forte out of the backfield.  Force Jay Cutler to make plays in 3rd-and-long situations.

Ballin' Outta Control



On tha ground, or in tha air, Peppers delivers.

 
Julius Peppers is a beast.  The man ain't no ordinary defensive end; he's an all around athlete with the agility of a free safety and the body frame of Frankenstein. We've seen Julius on the gridiron, a steam engine, plowing through offensive lineman en route to the quarterback. But have you ever seen him on the hardwood, running the floor on the break and skying above the rim to catch and throwdown alley-oops?  Yeah, Peppers was big man on campus at North Carolina for the Tar Heels in the early 2000s, playing in the NCAA Tournament twice in his career.  He's not the only guy in the NFL though that could hoop in college.  Donovan McNabb played for Jim Boeheim at Syracuse long before Melo did and Antonio Gates didn't even put on pads while at Kent State; he was too busy averaging 17-and-8 for the Golden Flashes basketball team.  There's alotta guys in the NFL that I think would've been nice at ball too, even thought they didn't play in college . . .

The Johnson Brothers

5.  Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans, 6-3 225.  I can picture this smooth route runner pushing the rock in transition and going in for a Jason Richardson-like tomahawk dunk or pulling up for the outside 'J' like, say, Joe Johnson . . . they kinda look alike anyway.

4.  Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots, 6-4 225.  He's not quick but tell me he wouldn't be the smartest player on the floor!?!?  I can see Tom Terrific being  a combination of Larry Bird and Steve Nash.  Bird for the court vision, pinpoint passing and anticipation, and knack for coming up big when it matters the most.  Nash because of the haircut. (I can see Brady tucking his hair back behind his ears while standing at the free-throw line  and waiting for the ref to hand him the ball, bending his knees while repeating his follow through, then blowing a kiss to Giselle in the stands.)

The Greatest Boston Athlete Ever

3.  Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cincinnati Bengals, 6-1 192.  The only player in the league with a big enough ego to compete with LeBron's.  The antics would be so hilarious that David Stern would hate him immediately.  (How about the Black Mamba vs. The Black Mexican?)He'd be like A.I., the Glove, Rodman, and Shaq rolled into one.  He'd be the biggest trash-talker on the court: "You think anyone in tha league could guard me????, CHILD PLEASE."

2.  Brian Urlacher, LB, Chicago Bears, 6-4 258.  I'd bring him in off the bench as a defender and enforcer; ya know, throw around his weight and rough up Kobe.

1.  Mike Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles, 6-0 215.  A throwback floor general in the mold of Isaiah Thomas. Outside of Chris Paul and Rajon Rondo, no one in the league would be faster with the ball in their hands than Vick.  If you don't think so just watch his NFL highlight reel and witness the ridiculous ability to change direction and just flat out make people look stupid.  Nuff said.